Opinion: Will 2026 see swathe of IPOs as the consolidation of consolidators well runs dry?

The ‘consolidation of the consolidators’ thesis has been batted around the UK general insurance (UKGI) broking market for years now. In fact, this idea started to get considerably more notice in the early years post-Covid-19, when I think we can all agree that M&A activity was at its most rampant.

Anecdotally, I remember Insurance Times covering Aston Lark’s acquisitional spurges in its pre-Howden days, for example, with the firm sometimes completing four or so deals a week.

This feedback is reinforced by hard, cold figures. An article published by consultancy MarshBerry on 5 December 2025 shared that 148 UK insurance distribution M&A transactions were announced in 2021, with further volume highs of 151 deals and 152 deals being recorded in 2023 and 2024 respectively. This compares to a meagre 74 announcements back in 2016.

As deal activity has increased year-on-year, market musings tugged on the idea of a future ‘consolidation of the consolidators’ as a next viable M&A step. This theory started to become a reality last year following Aon’s £10.6bn purchase of NFP in April 2024 and Gallagher’s £9.43bn buy in August 2025 of AssuredPartners.

Many UKGI commentators have told me, however, that broker consolidators will need to take stock in 2026 as their impressive scale upon absorbing other large national businesses has now potentially made them unwieldly for private equity (PE) backing – as well as the fact that suitable acquisition targets in the UK mid-market or national playing field are now few and far between, causing international opportunities to gain more lustre.

Numerous voices are stating that initial public offerings (IPOs) will instead be the way forward for these firms – referencing the process of a private company selling shares of its stock to the public and being listed on a stock exchange. This tool is typically used to raise capital for growth programmes.

Certainly, analysis within FTI Consulting’s March 2025 European Insurance M&A Barometer Report 2024: Surfing the New European Wave of Consolidation pinpointed IPOs as one of “a few exit options for PE-backed mature broker platform consolidators that are becoming too large to continue to refinance in the private markets”. Alternatively, consolidators could be bought by even bigger publicly listed brokers, the report added.

André Frazão, the firm’s managing director and head of insurance for Europe, Middle East and Africa (Emea) M&A, noted: “Public markets investors like the consistent growth and cash flows of the broker sector, which has performed exceptionally well.”

Peter Kelly, a senior managing director at FTI Consulting, added: “Many broker consolidators are backed by private equity and will have an eye towards going public or exiting once they have completed a run of acquisitions, provided those deals perform well.”

John Wepler, chief executive at MarshBerry, also confirmed to Insurance Times that IPOs are “on the horizon”. He continued: “The UK is fairly well consolidated and picked over. The question is are we getting to the 19th hole of this party, or is there still some running room left?”

IPO speculation

One intermediary currently occupying UKGI’s rumour mill here is Howden Group. Not only was the broker referenced in FTI Consulting’s aforementioned report, but Insurance Times understands that the firm is currently taking steps considered common when initiating an IPO project – its recent recruitment trends, for example, suggest that an IPO by the end of 2026 would not be out of the blue, according to an anonymous source.

Frazão added: “Howden is reportedly in discussions with Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Investment Company, to raise additional capital for the acquisition of a large US retail broker, potentially paving the way for its listing on a US stock exchange.

“This suggests that European broking powerhouses may also cross the Atlantic with ambitions of a global footprint.”

Other firms FTI Consulting feel could follow this route include Brown and Brown or Acrisure.

It is undeniable that the consolidation of the UK’s broking consolidators has been going great guns in the last 12 months. And, if market analysis and whisperings prove correct, IPOs will be the second phase of this movement if these firms want to plough ahead with world domination – especially considering that PE investment is already coming under scrutiny from certain parts of the market.

I feel it may be a case of ‘how many’ rather than ‘if’ or ‘when’.