From keyless hacking to conflict zones – how the UK’s stolen vehicles fuel a global trade

Car theft across the UK may be falling, but organised criminal gangs are increasingly using sophisticated electronic tools to bypass modern vehicle’s keyless systems, while shifting global demand and geopolitical trends are changing the vehicles they target.

Indeed, while UK vehicle thefts have fallen noticeably from their staggering peak of nearly 11,300 in the first quarter of 2023, the numbers are still high. Some 7,200 vehicles were stolen in the second quarter of 2026 alone – a figure insurers and consumers alike will be desperate to see continue to fall.

So, how are modern vehicles being compromised by organised criminals? Which vehicles are being targeted and what can be done to stop it? And what are the macro-trends that are driving a change in the types of vehicles being targeted?

To answer these questions, Insurance Times has partnered with automative risk intelligence firm Thatcham Research, to analyse exclusive data on the underworld trends that are influencing the stolen vehicle market.

A tale of two models

Some models are targeted more than others and drilling into Thatcham’s vehicle-level data reveals just how much a car’s age and security profile can influence its odds of being stolen.

Steve Launchbury, principal engineer for automative security at Thatcham Research, told Insurance Times: “It goes without saying that the older technology is, the more vulnerable it becomes. It’s a bit like with a laptop – if you don’t keep on top of all the antivirus stuff, after a while it starts slowing down and people find a way into the machine.”

Indeed, Thatcham’s data shows that the lion’s share of vehicles being stolen are seven or eight year-old models – new enough to maintain their value, but old enough to suffer from unaddressed security issues and software outside of the manufacturer’s warranty.

However, newer vehicles with newer software aren’t necessarily inherently safer. Indeed, some high value models attract much greater attention than others and criminals are constantly developing ways to target them.

Launchbury continued: “There’s an underlying [targeted vehicle] which is creeping up fast – the Nissan Juke. It’s number three in total thefts by model in the last three months [behind Ford Fiesta and Ford Transit vehicles], but it’s the older model that’s being targeted.

“But we speak closely with the Metropolitan Police and they’re often the first to start seeing a new trend. There’s a new tool that they’re talking about now affecting the latest Juke, so we’re expecting to see the year of that particular model shift quite soon.”

Launchbury’s reference to “tools” may conjure images of screwdrivers and hairpins, but the reality is much more technical. Modern, organised car thieves make use of electronic equipment that exploits keyless entry systems, for example by mirroring a vehicle’s key fob.

Such tools are freely available on the dark web, advertised like the latest iPhone with a list of makes, models and years that they are capable of hacking into.

“The person that carries out the actual theft doesn’t necessarily need to have any particular skills, because the kit does it for you,” he adds.

However, while thieves are developing new techniques to steal vehicles, insurers and technology firms are developing techniques to secure them. The often-targeted Nissan Juke can, perhaps, learn a lesson from the successes of improvements to Land Rover security.

Until recently, Land Rovers were one of the most persistently targeted vehicles for theft. Indeed, between June 2021 and November 2024, the model suffered from over 200 thefts per month, peaking at over 500 thefts in a single 30-day period in November 2022.

Since then, the figures have improved dramatically and just 128 Land Rover vehicles were stolen in June 2026.

Launchbury explained: “They had a problem with thefts over the past five to eight years, but they’ve had strong investment in terms of upgrading their security – and while they’re still reasonably high in terms of number of thefts, from a theft rate point of view I’m quite confident they’ve got on top of it.”

Closing down those vulnerabilities, he added, is not a one-off event, but a consistent effort from the vehicle manufacturer’s anti-theft team to identify electronic theft tools, acquire them, and reverse engineer them to identify and close the software vulnerabilities they exploit.

Patrick McGillycuddy, managing director at Jaguar Land Rover UK, highlighted the efforts in 2023, saying: “While vehicle theft in the UK is affecting the whole car industry, at JLR we understand the negative impact this can have on the ownership experience for our clients.

“Our investment of more than £10m demonstrates our ongoing commitment to tackling this issue. Through our long-standing collaboration with law enforcement and key partners, our expert team will continue to develop and deploy effective anti-theft measures to ensure clients are protected. It is my personal priority.”

Russia, Ukraine and the DRC

While accurate theft data can help intelligence firms and insurers reduce the theft risk of certain high-value models, understanding the macro-trends that are driving criminal activity can help them get a risk view on entire segments of the market.

One trend identified in Thatcham’s data was the rapid increase in the theft of pickup trucks, notably the Nissan Navara, Toyota Hilux, Mercedes Benz X Class and Ford Ranger models. In June 2021 these vehicles saw just 17 thefts combined – by July 2026, that number had risen to 115.

And, as Launchbury explained, the driving force behind the trend is quite unexpected: “We’ve noticed that there’s a surge in pickups [being stolen]. We know that they are often being targeted as they are a robust car and they can deal with the terrain of where they get exported to.

“We know through some of our conversations with [Georgian officials] that cars are moving through there and ending up possibly in areas of the Ukraine and Russia conflict. And certainly, they’re getting exported through the UAE and into the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

One Georgian attaché told Thatcham that there are whole villages of cars, many displaying UK number plates, waiting to be replated and sold into nearby conflict regions. The Toyota Hilux, in particular, is popular in Russia, despite UK sales of the vehicle into the country currently being prohibited by international sanctions.

A potential solution to this problem is to use the connected nature of the car to make owning a stolen version less attractive.

“If we know the car is in the DR Congo, for example, we could actually brick it and lock it down, so whoever got it is not going to want another one.”

For safety, completely disabling the vehicle from a distance may not be viable, though other measures could be taken to effectively spoil the car.

“At the moment, if people steal the keys, then they’ve got the vehicle away. But, with the telemetry systems of the future, we should be able to send a message to the vehicle to at least stop it doing half the functions it could,” he added.

“If it’s in the DR Congo, for example, and [a remote signal could update the car] so the windows don’t go down and the aircon doesn’t work, then that’s probably a problem [for the new owner].

“I think we can certainly tap into that connected element.”